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  • Ramba
    09-29 03:57 PM
    Good analysis ..

    Full disclousre - I consider myself a fiscal conservative. But after watching the debate I believe Obama is a better candidate for Presidency than John McCain and here's why -

    1) There is a third dimension to the economic debate besides tax cuts and tax raises - National Debt - which has run into uncountable trillions of Dollars. Obama gets it. McCain doesn't.

    2) Both candidates want to cut Defense expenditure. McCain thinks making Defense contracts fixed cost will cut expenditure substantially. How does he plan to do that without affecting quality? Are we to see more of the guns that don't fire in Iraq? Obama has a better solution - end the Iraq War in a timely fashion and save trillions of dollars spent every month.

    3) McCain wishes to continue the practice of cutting billions of dollars check anually to Pakistan, most of which goes to buy ammunition from US weapons manufacturers. In other words, a subsidy/corporate welfare in the name of 'War on Terror'. Obama plans to hold them accountable for the money they receive and wishes to see the money go to rooting out Al-queda rather than weapons that threaten India into an arms race. Obama plans to hunt down and eliminate Al-queda in Iraq. McCain has no such immediate plans! He wishes to fight the war in Iraq for 4-8 more years and pass on the responsibility to his successor.

    4) McCains solution to energy crisis is to destroy the North Pole and burden thousands of generations to come with nuclear waste which will literally take a millenia to clean-up. Obama has placed is bet on replenishable ,greener and less expensive alternatives.

    5) Both candidates plans require 'Borrow and Spend' in the short term due to proposed tax cuts. I would rather have Obama spend it on Energy Research than let McCain blow it up in I-rack. At least with Obama plan, America has a chance that reduced dependency on foreign oil may let US government divert the money currently spent on Foreign Oil in paying off debt, rather than pass it on to the future generation.

    6) Obama has proposed a medical insurance to help veterans. McCains answer -' I know veterans. I will take care of them'. What kind of answer is that?

    7) Obama's stated position is that American companies can bring in more skilled foreign workers as long as there is a need. We are of course concerned about his buddy Sen. Durbin's views which are diametrically opposite of Obama's stated position. On the other hand, McCain doesn't consider EB immigration to be important enough to have a position. In John McCains world - we simply don't exist!

    I think it's a good effort by Chandu to educate EB immigrants on the political realities so that we get ready in the days to come to face any eventuality. Also it will aid those of us who get Green Cards in the mean time to make wise decisions while contributing to future election campaigns.





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  • abracadabra102
    12-27 10:46 AM
    Pakistan's nukes' user manuals are in Chinese language. How will they know how to fire them?

    LOL. and we know the kinda quality to expect :-)





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  • Macaca
    05-15 05:59 PM
    Why America Needs Immigrants (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576313490871429216.html) By JONAH LEHRER | Wall Street Journal

    If there's one fact that Americans take for granted, it's that other people want to live here. As President Barack Obama noted in his speech on immigration earlier this week, the U.S. has always attracted strivers from every corner of the globe, often willing to risk great hardships to get here.

    During the 20th century especially, America became a magnet for the bright and ambitious. Millions of talented foreigners, from Alfred Hitchcock to Sergey Brin, flocked to our universities and benefited from our financial capital and open culture.

    There are signs, however, that the allure of America is fading. A new study by researchers at U.C. Berkeley, Duke and Harvard has found that, for the first time, a majority of American-trained entrepreneurs who have returned to India and China believe they are doing better at "home" than they would be doing in the U.S. The numbers weren't even close: 72% of Indians and 81% of Chinese said "economic opportunities" were superior in their native countries.

    Some of the local advantages cited by these global entrepreneurs were predictable: cheap labor and low operating costs. What's more worrisome is that these business people also cited the optimistic mood of their homelands. To them, America felt tapped out, but their own countries seem full of potential. This might also help to explain why the number of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. has plunged more than 60% since 2005.

    These trends are troubling because they threaten to undermine a chief competitive advantage of the U.S. Though politicians constantly pay lip service to the importance of American innovation, they often fail to note that it is driven in large part by first-generation immigrants.

    Consider some recent data. The U.S. Patent Office says immigrants invent patents at roughly double the rate of non-immigrants, which is why a 1% increase in immigrants with college degrees leads to a 15% rise in patent production. (In recent years, immigrant inventors have contributed to more than a quarter of all U.S. global patent applications.) These immigrants also start companies at an accelerated pace, co-founding 52% of Silicon Valley firms since 1995. It's no accident that immigrants founded or co-founded many of the most successful high-tech companies in America, such as Google, Intel and eBay.

    Why is immigration so essential for innovation? Immigrants bring a much-needed set of skills and interests. Last year, foreign students studying on temporary visas received more than 60% of all U.S. engineering doctorates. (American students, by contrast, dominate doctorate programs in the humanities and social sciences.)

    These engineering students drive economic growth. According to the Department of Labor, only 5% of U.S. workers are employed in fields related to science and engineering, but they're responsible for more than 50% of sustained economic expansion (growth that isn't due to temporary or cyclical factors). These people invent products that change our lives, and in the process, they create jobs.

    But the advantages of immigration aren't limited to those with particular academic backgrounds. In recent years, psychologists have discovered that exposing people to different cultures, either through travel abroad or diversity in their hometown, can also make them more creative. When we encounter other cultures we become more willing to consider multiple interpretations of the same thing. Take leaving food on one's plate: In China, it's often a compliment, signaling that the host has provided enough to eat. But in America it can suggest that the food wasn't good.

    People familiar with such cultural contrasts are more likely to consider alternate possibilities when problem-solving, instead of settling for their first answer. As a result, they score significantly higher on tests of creativity. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that many of the most innovative places in the world, such as Silicon Valley and New York City, are also the most diverse.

    We need a new immigration debate. In recent years, politicians have focused on border control and keeping out illegal immigrants. That's important work, of course. But what's even more important is ensuring that future inventors want to call America home.


    Europe and immigration are vital issues, so let's discuss them (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8514152/Europe-and-immigration-are-vital-issues-so-lets-discuss-them.html) Telegraph
    Fewer takers for H-1B
    The software scene in the US is changing (http://businessstandard.com/india/news/fewer-takers-for-h-1b-/435622/)
    Business Standard Editorial
    President Obama's dreaming if he thinks he's mending fences with immigrants (http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/bronx/2011/05/15/2011-05-15_prez_dreaming_if_he_thinks_hes_mending_fences.h tml) By Albor Ruiz | NYDN
    Twisting the truth on the Mexican border (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/twisting-the-truth-on-the-mexican-border/2011/05/12/AFOJKi3G_story.html) The Washington Post Editorial
    The Secure Visas Act (http://www.cfr.org/immigration/secure-visas-act/p24959) By Edward Alden | Council on Foreign Relations





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  • cinqsit
    08-06 01:27 AM
    We should stop these EB3'ers from wasting USCIS resources. Probably make them wear yellow stars with "EB3" printed on it at all times. They should not be hired by any company unless they have hired EB2's with excellent credentials like rolling flood. No EB3 should buy a car, house or lead a normal life at the cost of hurting EB2's like yourself.

    What kind of a sick immigration nazi are you ? Typical shallow minded mentality - "please please...(beg, beg) let me in but - stop everyone else from getting in (as soon as I am in)" ;-)

    Instead of wasting your time filing a lawsuit why don't you apply your "excellent knowledge in your field" to get a Ph.D from your reputed alma mater do extraordinary research in your "great" field and then cut in line by applying for EB1 which I think will always be current. Then you can port your EB2 PD and enjoy the fruits of PD porting ;-)


    cinqsit



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  • chintu25
    08-08 06:42 PM
    Thank God It's Friday


    A business man got on an elevator in a building. When he entered the elevator, there was a blonde already inside and she greeted him by saying, "T-G-I-F" (letters only).

    He smiled at her and replied, "S-H-I-T" (letters only)."

    She looked at him, puzzled, and said, "T-G-I-F" again.

    He acknowledged her remark again by answering, "S-H-I-T."

    The blond was trying to be friendly, so she smiled her biggest smile and said as sweetly as possibly "T-G-I-F" another time.

    The man smiled back to her and once again replied with a quizzical expression, "S-H-I-T."

    The blond finally decided to explain things, and this time she said, "T-G-I-F, Thank Goodness It's Friday, get it?"

    The man answered, "Sorry, Honey, It's Thursday."

    :D





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  • unitednations
    03-26 04:51 PM
    We had similar case. It was in 2002. Company was ready to issue another future offer letter. Local USCIS office at Buffalo NY did not agree to continue process. They said job offer is gone the I-485 is gone and has valid reason the denial. They asked my friend to refile I-140 and I-485.

    What eventually happened to the case.

    The baltimore case I mentioned happened in 2005 which was certified by AAO.



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  • Ramba
    09-29 03:57 PM
    Good analysis ..

    Full disclousre - I consider myself a fiscal conservative. But after watching the debate I believe Obama is a better candidate for Presidency than John McCain and here's why -

    1) There is a third dimension to the economic debate besides tax cuts and tax raises - National Debt - which has run into uncountable trillions of Dollars. Obama gets it. McCain doesn't.

    2) Both candidates want to cut Defense expenditure. McCain thinks making Defense contracts fixed cost will cut expenditure substantially. How does he plan to do that without affecting quality? Are we to see more of the guns that don't fire in Iraq? Obama has a better solution - end the Iraq War in a timely fashion and save trillions of dollars spent every month.

    3) McCain wishes to continue the practice of cutting billions of dollars check anually to Pakistan, most of which goes to buy ammunition from US weapons manufacturers. In other words, a subsidy/corporate welfare in the name of 'War on Terror'. Obama plans to hold them accountable for the money they receive and wishes to see the money go to rooting out Al-queda rather than weapons that threaten India into an arms race. Obama plans to hunt down and eliminate Al-queda in Iraq. McCain has no such immediate plans! He wishes to fight the war in Iraq for 4-8 more years and pass on the responsibility to his successor.

    4) McCains solution to energy crisis is to destroy the North Pole and burden thousands of generations to come with nuclear waste which will literally take a millenia to clean-up. Obama has placed is bet on replenishable ,greener and less expensive alternatives.

    5) Both candidates plans require 'Borrow and Spend' in the short term due to proposed tax cuts. I would rather have Obama spend it on Energy Research than let McCain blow it up in I-rack. At least with Obama plan, America has a chance that reduced dependency on foreign oil may let US government divert the money currently spent on Foreign Oil in paying off debt, rather than pass it on to the future generation.

    6) Obama has proposed a medical insurance to help veterans. McCains answer -' I know veterans. I will take care of them'. What kind of answer is that?

    7) Obama's stated position is that American companies can bring in more skilled foreign workers as long as there is a need. We are of course concerned about his buddy Sen. Durbin's views which are diametrically opposite of Obama's stated position. On the other hand, McCain doesn't consider EB immigration to be important enough to have a position. In John McCains world - we simply don't exist!

    I think it's a good effort by Chandu to educate EB immigrants on the political realities so that we get ready in the days to come to face any eventuality. Also it will aid those of us who get Green Cards in the mean time to make wise decisions while contributing to future election campaigns.





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  • inskrish
    01-07 01:41 AM
    Recently during Diwali celebration, one boy fired a rocket and it killed more than six people in Tamil Nadu. Offcourse this rocket was made in Sivakasi and it was an accident. It was a fire cracker. A simple fire cracker can make big accidents like this.

    But whole world is crying that Hamas fired 7000 rockets and killed innocent civilians and Isrealis are defending thier nation by killing thousands. What a crap man.

    If you are comparing the Sivakasi rocket with the Hamas's rocket, I can only sympathize with you. You certainly need to learn a lot--atleast the definition of 'Rocket' or 'Terrorists'.



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  • paragpujara
    08-07 12:18 PM
    1.Losing all your friends

    Man comes home, finds his wife with his friend in bed.
    He shoots his friend and kills him.
    Wife says "If you behave like this, you will lose ALL your friends."

    2. Brother wanted

    A small boy wrote to Santa Claus,"send me a brother"....
    Santa wrote back, "SEND ME YOUR MOTHER"....

    3. Meaning of WIFE

    Husband asks, "Do you know the meaning of WIFE? It means 'Without Information Fighting Everytime'!"
    Wife replies, "No, it means 'With Idiot For Ever'!!!"

    4. Importance of a period

    Teacher: "Do you know the importance of a period?"
    Kid: "Yeah, once my sister said she has missed one, my mom fainted, dad got a heart attack & our driver ran away."





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  • Macaca
    12-30 07:20 PM
    In Mumbai, a Place to Showcase an Art Collection (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/greathomesanddestinations/30gh-location.html) By AMANA FONTANELLA-KHAN | New York Times

    At Ashiesh Shah’s housewarming party in November, amid clinking champagne flutes, one of his friends joked that his apartment is actually an art gallery in disguise. Looking at the sculpture of a two-foot-long baby made of material from a spinnaker by the Canadian artist Max Streicher suspended above the staircase, any guest to his home might agree.

    Mr. Shah, 32, began collecting art in his 20s when he was still getting his start as an architect. Now he designs interiors for many of the city’s Bollywood actors. But up until last year, he had never had his own space to design. He was living with his parents in an apartment on Mumbai’s scenic Marine Drive.

    It was struggle to find the right space to showcase his art collection in a dense city with soaring real estate prices. “My art is not only two dimensional, it also takes up floor space and in a city like Mumbai, floor space can be just as expensive as art,” Mr. Shah said.

    He looked at more than 40 apartments over seven months, before settling on the one he bought in October 2009, a dark apartment subdivided into several small, boxy rooms in a five-story concrete structure built in the 1960s.

    The 1,075-square-foot apartment was nearly 41 million rupees (about $900,000 at 45 rupees to the dollar) average for an apartment on Peddar Road, a busy arterial in south Mumbai in the affluent Altamount neighborhood. His neighbors include some of his clients, as well as Mukesh Ambani, a business magnate who built a $1 billion 27-story building home, and industrialists like Kumar Mangalam Birla, the chairman of the Aditya Birla Group.

    It took over a year and around 5 million rupees ($110,000) to convert the space from a two-bedroom cramped duplex to an airy one-bedroom studio. Knocking down a total of nine walls, Mr. Sha said, “gave me freedom to place art pieces in a fluid, open space.”

    Still, it wasn’t enough square footage to showcase all of his collection at the same time. As a result, he created a small storage room for pieces not on display, which he rotates into the apartment about every six months. “It means that the art never gets static,” he said.

    But with limited space were opportunities for functional pieces to have artistic elements, as is the case for his staircase. Mr. Shah had initially planned to turn the steps — carved from a solid cube of white Indian marble — into drawers for additional storage, but they were too small. He converted them into what he calls “curious steps” instead. “I am planning to give them out to artists in the future to make commissioned miniature art for them,” he said.

    Other features, such as a partition panel that pulls out from a wall in the living room, have dual functionality, serving as a projection screen for video art and creating a sectioned-off viewing area.

    White epoxy flooring — “Which took three tries to get right,” he says — and white walls on the main floor help create an illusion of greater perceived space, as well as a neutral background for his art collection.

    Mr. Shah also added whimsical elements to “give the flat an element of play,” he said. In the guest bathroom, a light projector positioned above the sink creates pronounced shadows on the walls when people wash their hands. “Guests end up spending those five seconds more in the bathroom and think, ‘That was fun,’ ” Mr. Shah said. He placed a sculpture of obstetric forceps by the Indian artist Anita Dube next to the floating baby that hangs above his stairs.

    Pointing to an antique couch, which he upholstered using a vintage Rajasthani carpet, Mr. Shah said that he made sure the red design motif in the center of the carpet was positioned to resemble a pair of lips.

    “Did you notice that?” he asked. “I did that because this is my gossip couch.”



    Taking on the world (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Taking-on-the-world/articleshow/7192176.cms) Times of India Editorial
    Delhi plans Tate Modern-style gallery in old power station
    Ambitious project in Indian capital involves dismantling parts of the Indraprastha power plant beside banks of Yamuna river (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/28/india-delhi-power-plant-project)
    By Jason Burke
    Delhi to build its own Tate Modern on banks of Yamuna (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-news/8228523/Delhi-to-build-its-own-Tate-Modern-on-banks-of-Yamuna.html) By Barney Henderson | Daily Telegraph
    Indian Citibank 'fraudster' arrested (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12092058) BBC



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  • snathan
    09-27 11:35 AM
    What would be the immediate impact on the GC...no matter who ever wins. Yes, its painful to wait in the long line. But I would prefer that rather than some one came to power and kills the EB community. What are the chances for that? I don’t expect them to reform anything...at least if they maintain the status quo...that would be fine. There is no immediate death. This is just my opinion. So guys don’t give me red dots.





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  • pete
    04-09 11:51 AM
    As is true with everything else it cannot be all gain.
    If we are to have CIR based GC advantage there will need to be H1B regulation. Thousands of h1Bs get filled in matter of hours. Many for consultants. How can that be right. Tough choices will need to be made and so be it.




    pete,

    i am a physician and in the same boat as you. my employer searched high and dry before i came along. but you are missing something here. except universities that can hire the "best candidate", every other employer has to employ a citizen/gc applicant with the "minimum qualifications for the job". please revisit the rules if you do not understand this. your talent and extra skills count for nothing. employers cannot take the best applicant...if an LCA is needed. this is a very significant problem if applied to H1B renewals. Any tom dick and harry can displace you every 3 years. think about it please, not just your own situation. i am strongly in favor of H1B reform. i believe that this if linked with a bill like strive dramatically increase support for retrogression relief. however the reform needs to be thought through carefully. a 6 mnth LCA process for each renewal would kill us. let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater...



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  • like_watching_paint_dry
    07-16 10:10 AM
    Don't yell at me. I agree with most of you guys. I am also a masters degree holder from a US university and waiting for my GC and I think the body shops created most of the bad reputations for the h1-bs. Even though some of you say it is a small percentage, I disagree. If we also push for some h1-b reform, may be we can get what we want. Usually a bill develop as a package.

    Some one asked for the name of a body shop. I could provide that if you think there will be some action against them.

    If you go to anti-H1-b sites, They are displaying things like, Advertisements listing H1-b available for a number of US cities. These are ads taken from body shops. The anti-h1-b sites use this as a propaganda. I think it hurts all of us. :D

    If you hold an advanced degree from a good school in the US, then you are usually one of the most sought after professionals in this country. If you think you are not among the best and the brightest and you deserved to end up in a hole like the one you are talking about, the least you still do is keep your self respect and abide by the laws.

    You can definitely help by initiating action against the offending body-shop guy. DOL/CIS have stepped up enforcement and are going after such violators. It is not legal to "bench" an employee and not pay the offered wages or pay below the prevailing wage specified in the Labor Condition Application form filed by your employer. I'm not sure but I've probably read that asking the employee to pay the immigration processing costs is not legal either.

    DOL/CIS has forms for reporting these kind of violators. If you do not do this, that same body shop will do the exact same thing to the next person tomorrow. And that next guy could be your younger brother or sister.

    You can use these forms and file a complaint:

    http://www.dol.gov/esa/forms/whd/WH-4.pdf

    http://www.usdoj.gov/crt/osc/htm/charge.htm





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  • Macaca
    12-30 07:15 PM
    Binayak Sen: India's war on a man of peace
    A life term for Binayak Sen under a law used by the British against Gandhi has shocked my country (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/dec/28/binayak-sen-india-british-gandhi) By Kalpana Sharma | The Guardian

    More than 150 years ago, the British introduced a law in India designed to check rebellious natives. In 2010 this law has been used by an independent India to check activists who question government policy.

    Section 124A of the Indian penal code was introduced in 1870 by the British to deal with sedition. It was later used to convict Mahatma Gandhi. In his statement during the hearing on 23 March 1922, Gandhi said, "The section under which Mr Banker [a colleague in non-violence] and I are charged is one under which mere promotion of disaffection is a crime. I have studied some of the cases tried under it, and I know that some of the most loved of India's patriots have been convicted under it. I consider it a privilege, therefore, to be charged under that section � I hold it to be a virtue to be disaffected toward a government which in its totality has done more harm to India than any previous system."

    The man convicted under this section in 2010 is, like Gandhi, a man of peace. Dr Binayak Sen, celebrated human rights activist and medical doctor, has worked for more than three decades as a doctor in the tribal-dominated areas of the state of Chhattisgarh in central India, working for people denied many of the basic services that the state should provide, such as health and education.

    As a civil rights activist, Sen has been an outspoken critic of the state government and its repressive actions against the armed rebellion launched by the banned Communist party of India (Maoist). The state has introduced special laws to suppress support for the Maoists, raising a militia to fight them. Independent observers concur with Sen on the extent of human rights violations, but in May 2007 he was arrested on charges of working with a banned organisation, based on visiting a well-known Maoist ideologue, Narayan Sanyal, in jail.

    Denied bail for two years, Sen was finally allowed out on bail last year. On December 24, a case that on all counts was weak and based on hearsay and circumstantial evidence, concluded. Sen was found guilty of sedition and other charges, and sentenced to life imprisonment. The judgment has provoked widespread condemnation from Indian civil society.

    Why this case has shocked people's sensibilities has as much to do with the man himself as the state in which he has chosen to work. Sen worked among the poorest and most deprived people in India, the Adivasis. The Maoists have also established their base in the tribal belt stretching through the heart of India. Their concerns are similar; their strategies diametrically opposite.

    But for the Chhattisgarh government, the Maoists are evil and deserve no sympathy or understanding. Because they use violence, the response of the state must be equally violent.

    Sen and many others who question India's development policy, which has exacerbated the gap between the poorest and the rich, argue that groups like the Maoists succeed because the state fails to serve the needs of the poor. In an atmosphere where everything is reduced to "You are either for us, or against us", there is no place for people like Sen who are fighting for social justice without violence. Arundhati Roy, who has dared to speak publicly about freedom for Kashmir and has spent time with the Maoists to present their worldview, also narrowly escaped sedition charges earlier this year.

    The judgment against Sen also reveals the extent to which paranoia and political bias in a state can affect the justice system. In Chhattisgarh today you would need to be a brave individual to question the state. Even judges in lower courts will not. Sen's supporters are determined to file an appeal and take it to the highest court. But whatever the outcome, the very fact of such a ruling has shocked many. India's judiciary has not remained untouched by the scandals currently being unearthed of corruption in very high places. Yet, by and large, faith in the excruciatingly slow judicial system remains fairly high. Today people ask: if even high-profile people like Sen can be denied justice, what hope is there for some unknown citizen being picked and charged of being a Maoist sympathiser or a terrorist?



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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 02:14 PM
    violence is a two way sword..

    its not that hamas is doing gandhigiri there.. even though they were elected to rule palestine..those morons instead of providing good governence and hope to their ppl..have resorted to some mindless/aimless bombing of Israel.

    i care that kids are getting killed... but dont you care then when one of ur jihadi blows himself up..and many innocent get killed.
    I support that palestinians be given their right to self rule.. but they should learn to live and let live..

    so you are saying.. u can kill ppl in the name of god..and when someone responds..u squirm like a toad?

    grow up.. kid..

    Its another form of supporting state sponsored terrorism. Do you think people go and seek refuge in schools? Its what these biased media feed us and this is what we consume.

    This is how they justify their killing of innocent school kids and civilians. They don't even spare kids. Shame on us who try to justify the killing.

    News media says Palestinians have fired 6000 to 7K rockets into Isreal. But what they show is all Isreal aerial bombardment. Have they ever shown damage caused by Palestinians?





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  • JazzByTheBay
    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".

    jazz


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.



    more...


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  • nojoke
    04-14 03:18 PM
    I cannot agree more. I have been trying to drill this into some peoples brain but they are so adamant on renting and has made this thread into a rent vs buy argument. I finally gave up. I am not saying that this is the right time to buy. Fast forward 2 or 2+ years, lets assume the market is good. Then when it comes to rent vs buy I advocate buying a house.

    Let�s say you have a small kid and you are living in an apartment, after 10 years you save enough money to buy a big house and you then eventually you buy it. Then you ask the your kid �do you like the house?�. He will reply �it�s very nice dad, but can you give you give my childhood now?.�. Go figure out guys. If you are not planning on going back for a very long time then at-least get a life in the country you reside and when the housing market is good.

    Where do you get the idea that the child will loose the life in apartments and then get back after buying a house?:confused: It would be nice if we can buy the house on the day one when we join the job. Or even nicer if our parents got us a house in US before we came here:D. Unfortunately there are circumstances that prevent us buying a house. The biggest one is this bubble and the madness of multiple bidding that insanely pushed the real estate prices, all the while the realtors and mortgage brokers where making 300K or 500K yearly income selling shoe boxes for half a million and generating slogans like "you will be priced out forever", "they are not manufacturing any more land", "housing is always a good investment", "renting is throwing away money".





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  • Green_Always
    06-08 08:06 PM
    Wish you good luck to get Job quickly.


    I think it really is a matter of personal choice. A house is much more than a mere investment. For people like us it adds another layer of complications
    due to our status (or rather...lack of status).

    We are in Bay Area (San Jose Metro area) and were paying around $2000 in rent. We just bought a condo where our payments (mortgage + Taxes + HoA) are going
    to be around 2300. Hopefully we will be getting back around 400-500 in taxes and this makes it a good deal. However only 15 days after moving into our
    new house, I was laid off and now our biggest concern is if I am not able to get a job in next few weeks and if we have to go back we will be almost
    80k down the hole.





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  • RaviG
    07-14 08:24 PM
    the spill over from EB1 should go equally to Eb2 and Eb3..can we work on getting this message across.

    I dont understand your argument, may be I misunderstood. Who will benefit from EB1 to EB3 spill over ROW or retrogressed countries. It likely EB3 ROW. So why EB3 Indian writing the letter? May be things should be more clear about what you want to achieve.





    punjabi
    08-08 06:41 PM
    Oh, I loved this joke!!!!!

    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
    HERE COMES THE BEST JOKE OF THIS THREAD

    I got a RED dot for this post.

    Comment - "Racist Joke".





    jayleno
    10-01 07:58 PM
    I'm a great fan of Obama for what he has achieved so far and in all probability he will win in Nov. I hope the new CIR will not be similar to CIR 2007 as far legal immigration is concerned. After 8 years of paying taxes I would definitely feel greatly disappointed if we get a raw deal for being legal